WTPN21 PHNC 300830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 101.2W TO 11.7N 105.8W WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF 
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA 
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 300600Z 
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 101.5W. 
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
10.0N 101.5W APPROXIMATELY 866 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS FORMATIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE INVEST 91E 
WILL EXPERIENCE LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS 
WHICH SHOWS 91E PROPAGATING NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINOR CONSOLIDATION 
AND DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
310830Z.//
NNNN