ABPW10 PGTW 300600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/300600Z-310600ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300151ZMAY2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/300521ZMAY2021//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 30MAY21 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 133.8E, APPROXIMATELY 67 NM SOUTHWEST OF PALAU, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 300300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.8N 152.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 149.0E, APPROXIMATELY 445 
NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL TURNING AND FLARING CONVECTION WITHOUT A 
DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS INDICATES 
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO 
MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, 
AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS 
GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 90W WILL LOSE STRENGTH AS IT PROPAGATES 
NORTHWESTWARD. HWRF INDICATES MINOR DEVELOPMENT THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
AND REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN CONSIDERATION OF THE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTPN21 PGTW 300530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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