ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290521ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 6.0N 153.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 152.8E, APPROXIMATELY 622 
NM SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS MID TO UPPER LEVEL TURNING OVER AN ILL DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 290328Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS AN 
IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO 
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LLC. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, A POINT SOURCE ALOFT WITH NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW, 
AND LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
FAIR AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90W WILL POTENTIALLY GAIN INTENSITY OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LOSE STRENGTH AS IT PROPAGATES 
NORTHWESTWARD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS, WHICH SHOWS A 
STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATION BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 290530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.1N 142.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 135.7E, APPROXIMATELY 74 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF REPUBLIC OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (<15 KTS) VWS OFFSET BY MINIMAL 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND 
STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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