ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.7N 154.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 153.6E, APPROXIMATELY 131 
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES THAT WRAP INTO 
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CENTER. SCATTEROMETRY DATA FROM A 272330Z 
ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SURROUNDED 
BY 15-20 KTS WINDS AND STRONGER 20-25 KTS WINDS DISPLACED 
APPROXIMATELY 60-120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL POSITION. THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29 
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. NUMERICAL 
MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE GFS SOLUTIONS PROVIDING THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO. DESPITE THIS DIVERGENCE IN 
INTENSITY SOLUTIONS, ALL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 90W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.4N 145.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.1N 142.3E, APPROXIMATELY 477 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND AN IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL CONTINUE TO 
TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT DEVELOPS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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