WTIO31 PGTW 260300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 260000Z --- NEAR 21.1N 87.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.1N 87.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.2N 86.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 23.3N 85.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 24.3N 84.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 260300Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 87.2E. 26MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH HAS MAINTAINED AN OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE, ALBEIT WITH EARLY SIGNS OF DECAY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO SHORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR FROM PARADIP, INDIA, THE 252303Z GMI 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS, AND ANALYSIS OF COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65KTS BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/(55KTS (PGTW), T3.7/59KTS (ADT), AND 67KTS FROM SATCON, AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B IS NOW UNDER AN AREA OF WEAKER OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ESTUARY OF BUDHABALANGA RIVER, INDIA, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 15NM AT TAU 12, SPREADING WIDER TO 55NM BY TAU 24 MAINLY DUE TO THE AFUM, THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. // NNNN