WTIO31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 87.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 87.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 21.5N 87.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 22.5N 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 23.6N 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 87.6E. 25MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND A WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE AND DEGREE OF WRAP, ALBEIT WITH EARLY SIGNS OF DECAY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON LLCC FEATURE IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR FROM PARADIP, INDIA AND IN THE 251745Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65KTS WHICH IS SET WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE HEDGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55KTS), THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T3.7 (59KTS), THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 61KTS, AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 02B IS NOW UNDER AN AREA OF WEAKER OUTFLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND. THESE FACTORS ARE OFFSET BY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 02B WILL REMAIN AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 65KTS AS IT TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AT ABOUT TAU 12, TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ESTUARY OF BUDHABALANGA RIVER, INDIA. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND FULLY DISSIPATE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 15NM AT TAU 12, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.// NNNN