WTIO31 PGTW 242100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 241800Z --- NEAR 17.3N 88.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 88.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 18.4N 88.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 19.5N 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 20.6N 86.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 21.6N 86.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 271800Z --- 23.1N 84.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 242100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 88.6E. 24MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (YAAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 318 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH A WIDE SWATH OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE 241745Z PGTW FIX AND A 241540Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS WHICH SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED STORM CENTER WITH A 60NM AREA OF 50KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND MORE ALIGNED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT-B DATA. TC 02B IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT STEADILY INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 12, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO <15 KTS, ALLOWING TC 02B TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KTS NEAR TAU 24, DECREASING TO 65 KTS BY TAU 36 AT LANDFALL NEAR BHITARKANIKA NATIONAL PARK, INDIA. AFTER TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN RAPIDLY DECAYING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND BECOMING FULLY DISSIPATED BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 63 NM AT TAU 24, WITH THE UK MET TRACKER BEING THE OUTLIER TO THE NORTHEAST. JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z.// NNNN