WTIO31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 71.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 71.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 22.5N 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 24.4N 72.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 26.2N 73.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 71.4E. 17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 01A HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, WITH A 20NM EYE FEATURE, SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE BD ENHANCEMENT. THE SYSTEM WAS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING THE SHORELINE AT THE 171800Z HOUR, VERY NEAR TO JAFARABAD, INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 20NM EYE FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, REFLECTING THE IMPROVED INFRARED SIGNATURE, COLDER CLOUD TOPS AND WARMER EYE TEMPERATURE. MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KTS) FROM PGTW, T5.5 (102 KTS) FROM DEMS, AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T6.0, LEND ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE, WITH LOW (10- 15 KTS) VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND HOWEVER, IT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF KHAMBAHT THROUGH TAU 12 EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL BE CENTERED WELL INLAND. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36 AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ARAVALLI MOUNTAINS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 38 FEET.// NNNN