WTIO31 PGTW 171500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 71.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 71.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.6N 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 23.4N 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 25.2N 73.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 71.2E. 17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 113 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH THE ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE CONTINUAL LAND INTERACTION ALONG THE INDIAN COAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 10-NM RAGGED EYE AND A TIMELY 171130Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DEMS T5.0/90KTS, SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5/102KTS, THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 117KTS, AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T6.0/115KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). TC 01A WILL BEGIN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR JAFARABAD, INDIA THROUGH TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF GREATER VWS IN CONJUNCTION WITH TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS NEARSHORE AS IT TRACKS NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN AND THE HIGHER VWS, LEADING TO THE OVERALL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MAXIMUM OF 65NM BY TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z, AND 181500Z.// NNNN