WTIO31 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 013// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 19.2N 71.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 71.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 20.9N 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 22.8N 71.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 24.4N 72.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 26.1N 73.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 71.3E. 17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 88 NM WEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT AND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH CONTINUAL AND PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION ALONG THE WESTERN INDIAN COAST. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY HAVE BEEN WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION, AS EVIDENCED BY COLDER OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. THE 13-NM EYE REMAINS RAGGED BUT WELL- DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED FOR PARALLAX ERROR, THE BULLSEYE PASS FROM A 170516Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE, AND THE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM MUMBAI, INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0/115KTS, DEMS T5.5/102KTS, THE SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 120KTS, AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T6.3/122KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 01A WILL BEGIN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR JAFARABAD, INDIA BY TAU 12. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF GREATER VWS IN CONJUNCTION WITH TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SST NEARSHORE AS IT TRACKS NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND VERY GRADUAL SPREAD TO A MAXIMUM OF 80NM BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z, AND 180900Z.// NNNN