WTIO31 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 71.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 71.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 20.3N 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 22.0N 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 23.7N 71.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 25.5N 73.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 71.5E. 17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 78 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO BE SYMMETRICAL AND COMPACT DESPITE HOURS OF PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERN INDIAN COAST. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS DEEPENED FURTHER AS EVIDENCED BY COLDER OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. THE 12-NM EYE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED BUT REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED FOR PARALLAX ERROR AND LINED UP WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 162110Z AMSR2 36GHZ PASS AND COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM MUMBAI, INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0/115KTS, SATCON ESTIMATE OF 123KTS, AND ADT OF T6.8/135KTS TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHERLY CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR JAFARABAD, INDIA BY TAU 18. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS AN AREA OF GREATER VWS IN CONJUNCTION WITH TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SST NEARSHORE AS IT TRACKS NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO 130NM AT TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z. // NNNN