WTIO31 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 17.8N 72.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.8N 72.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 19.7N 71.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.2N 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 22.8N 71.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 24.5N 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 162100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 72.0E. 16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SYSTEM THAT HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL AND COMPACT AS CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEVELOPED, SHARPLY-OUTLINED 10NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE, ADJUSTED FOR PARALLAX ERRO AND LINED UP WITH A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 161646Z ASCAT-B DIRECT PASS AND COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM MUMBAI, INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5/102KTS, SATCON ESTIMATE OF 132KTS, AND ADT OF T6.8/135KTS TO REFLECT THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS) ALOFT; AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 18 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR JAFARABAD, INDIA SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. PEAK INTENSITY OF 110KTS HAS BEEN ACHIEVED AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH AS IT TRACKS NORTH DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SST NEARSHORE. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO 115NM AT TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z. // NNNN