ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/
161800Z-171800ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161351ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16MAY21 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.8N 72.6E, APPROXIMATELY 573 NM SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 161500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.2S 76.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8S 76E, APPROXIMATELY 231 NM NORTHEAST 
OF DEIGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). A 161524Z ASCAT-A PARTIAL PASS REVEALS CONVERGING 15-20KT 
WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, WITH NO CLEAR LLC. A PARTIAL 161309Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS LINEAR LOW-LEVEL BANDING ASSOCIATED 
WITH INVEST 90S. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY 
WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 
INVEST 90S WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE REMAINING ELONGATED AND 
BROAD WITH MARGINAL STRENGTHENING OF WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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