WTIO31 PGTW 161500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 161200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 72.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 72.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.6N 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 20.2N 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 21.6N 71.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 23.1N 71.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 26.4N 74.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 161500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 72.4E. 16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 573 NM SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS A DEEP COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED 17NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A 161141Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FROM MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND PLACED BETWEEN THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS, THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T5.9/112KTS, AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 108KTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), FUELED BY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LASTING THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AS IT ENTERS A REGION OF HIGHER SHEAR, ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS, AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN VERAVAL AND MAHUVA, INDIA, BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN BEFORE COMPLETING DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD, NOW ONLY 55NM AT TAU 24, ONLY INCREASING THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO A MERE 149NM BY TAU 72. TRACK CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH UP TO TAU 48 AND WANES SLIGHTLY AFTER MOVING OVER LAND AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, CLOSER TO ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z, AND 171500Z.// NNNN