WTIO31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 009// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 72.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 72.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.4N 72.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 19.0N 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 20.5N 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 21.8N 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 25.0N 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 72.6E. 16MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 626 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A 14NM EYE NOW FORMING AS THE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND BECOMES MORE COMPACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM GOA, INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND PLACED IN LINE WITH THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90KTS AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DEMS T4.5/77KTS, THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T4.7/82KTS AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATE OF 78KTS. THIS INCREASE IN INTENSITY REFLECTS THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR DUE TO A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. ANALYSIS INDICATES ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, FUELED BY THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN VERAVAL AND MAHUVA, INDIA, SHORTLY AFTER TAUS 36. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TIGHTENED IN AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD, NOW ONLY 68NM AT TAU 36 AND INCREASES TO A MERE MAXIMUM OF 193NM THROUGH TAU 72. TRACK CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH UP TO TAU 48, THEN LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVERLAND. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 36 IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE THAN WHAT CONW SUGGESTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z, AND 170900Z.// NNNN