WTIO31 PGTW 151500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 72.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 72.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.6N 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.8N 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.5N 70.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.7N 70.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 22.6N 70.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 25.7N 72.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 27.8N 74.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7N 72.8E. 15MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 707 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 766 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A 151058Z SSMIS 37GHZ PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS IN LINE WITH THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) ESTIMATES OF 61 KNOTS AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PGTW AND DEMS DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS), AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 60 JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PORBANDAR, INDIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OUT TO TAU 48, WITH THE SPREAD INCREASING FROM 155NM AT TAU 48, INCREASING TO A MAXIMUM OF 325NM THROUGH TAU 120. THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) REMAINS HIGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUALLY IMPROVE AS TC 01A MOVES NORTH, SHEAR WEAKENS, AND OUTFLOW INCREASES, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND MAKE INITIAL LANDFALL NEAR PORBANDAR, INDIA. THE SYSTEM WILL LOSE SOME INTENSITY AS IT RECURVES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND REEMERGES OVER THE GULF OF KUTCH, MAKING LANDFALL ONCE AGAIN, THIS TIME NEAR GANDHIDHAM, INDIA, AND BEGIN DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER, FULLY DISSIPATING OVER THE THAR DESERT NEAR TAU 120. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS MODERATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.// NNNN