WTIO31 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 72.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 72.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.1N 72.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.2N 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.5N 70.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.8N 69.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.2N 67.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.6N 67.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 24.9N 68.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 72.3E. 15MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 793 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142347Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A BAND OF DENSE CONVECTION SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 53 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING TO OVER 580NM BY TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST IS MODERATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.// NNNN