WTIO31 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 12.1N 72.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 72.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.4N 72.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.7N 71.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.9N 71.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 17.3N 70.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 20.1N 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 23.2N 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 25.9N 70.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 72.3E. 14MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 141338Z SSMIS 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH NEARLY RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AFTER TAU 48, INCREASING TO OVER 450NM BY TAU 96 WITH A 450NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS. AFTER TAU 96, THE MODELS FURTHER DIVERGE WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST IS MODERATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.// NNNN