WTIO31 PGTW 141500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (ONE) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 11.9N 72.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 72.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 13.1N 72.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 14.4N 72.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.8N 71.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.1N 70.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.8N 69.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 23.3N 68.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 26.8N 70.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 72.2E. 14MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01A (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 828 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 141205Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATE A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (31C) SST VALUES. TC 01A IS TRACKING SLOWLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. TC 01A IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 BEFORE RECURVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96 WITH A 235NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, THE MODELS DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE. DUE TO THE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS, TC 01A IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER TAU 24 WITH A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72. STEADY WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAKISTAN/INDIA BORDER WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST IS MODERATE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.// NNNN