ABIO10 PGTW 131800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI
//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131151ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.8N 66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH OF
MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DISORGANIZED POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT PARTIALLY OBSCURE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD LINES THAT WRAP INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES ARE PRESENT IN A 131353Z SSMIS 36 GHZ 
COMPOSITE IMAGE WHICH LENDS A HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE POSITION OF INVEST
92A THAN IN PREVIOUS BULLETINS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE GENESIS WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW 
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO 
DEEPEN AND TRACK GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS 
BEFORE MAKING A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN THEREAFTER.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE 
REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 131200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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