ABIO10 PGTW 131230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/REISSUED/131230Z-131800ZMAY2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131151ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.8N 66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 530 
NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 130826Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA 
OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL 
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 92A WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY AS IT TURNS 
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 131200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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