WTIO21 PGTW 131200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.8N 70.5E TO 13.1N 73.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.8N 71.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.8N 66.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 71.0E, APPROXIMATELY 530 
NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 130826Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA 
OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST RADIAL 
OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 92A WILL CONSOLIDATE QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY AS IT TURNS 
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
141200Z.//
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