ABPW10 PGTW 121700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/121700Z-130600ZMAY2021
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121551ZMAY2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.4N 131.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.8N 130.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
300 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF CONVECTION OBSCURING 
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS EVIDENT IN DATA FROM 
A 121302Z ASCAT-B PASS. FURTHERMORE, THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS 
20-25 KTS WINDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER, 
WITH ISOLATED REGIONS OF HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
SEMICIRCLE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION 
WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODEST DIVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A POINT 
SOURCE OVERHEAD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM 
WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE COAST. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN22 PGTW 121600) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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