WTPN22 PGTW 121600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.6N 131.3E TO 8.7N 124.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 121200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 130.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
COMPACT AREA OF CONVECTION OBSCURING A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION THAT IS EVIDENT IN DATA FROM A 121302Z ASCAT-B PASS. 
FURTHERMORE, THE SCATTEROMETRY DATA REVEALS 20-25 KTS WINDS ALONG 
THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH ISOLATED REGIONS OF 
HIGHER WINDS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SEMICIRCLE. THE 
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW 
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND MODEST DIVERGENCE SUPPORTED BY A POINT SOURCE 
OVERHEAD. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL 
GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND TRACK WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINE COAST. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED 
BY 131600Z.
//
NNNN