ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/111800Z-121800ZMAY2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.0N 57.5E, NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 58.5E APPROXIMATELY 317 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA, YEMEN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 111423Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
DISORGANIZED, ELONGATED, AND BROAD CONVECTION TURNING OVER AN 
OBSCURED AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. INVEST 92A IS IN AN OVERALL 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND VERY WARM (30-31C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92A WILL 
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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