WTPN21 PHNC 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 103.6W TO 14.7N 107.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5N 103.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.5N 103.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1407 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, 
CALIFORNIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
072254Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND 
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 90E WITH LOW VWS 
(<15KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST (28-29C). GLOBAL 
NUMERICAL MODELS BRIEFLY TRACK A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
090300Z.//
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