WTXS31 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 008 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 7.9S 40.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.9S 40.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 7.4S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 7.0S 37.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 40.3E. 24APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, REFORMING OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC), INDICATIVE OF A SLIGHT RELAXATION IN THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN A 240343Z SSMIS COLOR ENHANCED 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND FMEE. TC JOBO IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID- LEVEL STR. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (10- 15KT) VWS, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SSTS. THE MAIN HINDRANCE TO ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS THE PRESENCE OF A REGION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST, PROHIBITING THE RECENT FLARING CONVECTION FROM EXPANDING AND PERSISTING. JOBO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF DAR ES SALAAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM, BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY INLAND AND QUICKLY DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 242100Z.// NNNN