WTXS31 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 8.1S 42.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.1S 42.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 7.5S 40.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 7.2S 39.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 7.0S 38.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 7.9S 41.9E. 23APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 194 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. JOBO HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED, WITH A 231820Z GMI MICROWAVE PASS REVEALING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DISPLACED ABOUT 120 NM WEST OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KTS BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING, NOW 10-20 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, MOSTLY IN THE MID- TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER, MODEL ANALYSIS AND MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY FROM CIMSS INDICATE THAT A MODERATELY DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN THE 900- 600 MB LAYER IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST, PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION FROM BEING SUSTAINED. THIS IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR JOBO TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THIS DRY LAYER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COASTLINE OF TANZANIA BY A BELT OF LOW-LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. JOBO IS THUS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS JUST OFFSHORE OF TANZANIA NEAR DAR ES SALAAM, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE WEAK REMNANT CIRCULATION OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE INLAND OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN TANZANIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z AND 242100Z.// NNNN