WTXS31 PGTW 231500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 8.5S 43.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 43.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 8.0S 42.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 7.7S 41.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 7.5S 40.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 7.3S 39.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 231500Z POSITION NEAR 8.4S 43.1E. 23APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 668 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED NEAR A 231200Z PGTW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FIX. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON ASCAT DATA FROM 230613Z AND 230659Z, WHICH INDICATED 40-45 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER, AND AN INTERVENING WEAKENING TREND EVIDENCED BY DETERIORATING STORM STRUCTURE. TC 29S IS TRACKING TOWARD AN EXPECTED LANDFALL NEAR DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA AROUND TAU 48, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. MUCH OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE COMPACT CIRCULATION CONTENDS WITH A LAYER OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. TC 29S WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE CURRENT STEERING AND ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES, FALLING BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS, WITH THE GFS, GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF TRACKERS DEPICTING POSSIBLE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN TANZANIA WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A TRACKING INTO CENTRAL TANZANIA. LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH VARYING DEPICTIONS OF THE DISSIPATION TREND. THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE NOTED MODEL SPREAD. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL VERY LIKELY MOVE INLAND AS A WEAK REMNANT CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z AND 241500Z.// NNNN