WTXS31 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 005// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230000Z --- NEAR 9.2S 43.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 43.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 8.7S 42.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 8.1S 41.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 7.8S 40.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 7.4S 39.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 7.0S 38.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 230300Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 43.6E. 23APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 618 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED HEAVILY ON A 222206Z AMSR2 SERIES AND SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW FIX ON ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY. BOTH EIR AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SHOW A CONVECTIVE BLOOM OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS EASED SIGNIFICANTLY (BELOW 15 KTS). THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE RECENT ORGANIZATION AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KTS BASED ON THE DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW AND SUPPORTED BY AN ADT VALUE OF 49 KTS. TC 29S IS POSITIONED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SPINE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEPICTED ON THE 221200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS ALONG THE ENTIRETY OF THE TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 29S WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF DAR ES SALEM, TANZANIA. ALTHOUGH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ABUNDANT MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS ALONG THE STORMS BEARING INDICATE A LAYER OF DRY AREA BETWEEN 3 AND 10 FT THAT WILL STIFLE ANY MAJOR SURGES IN INTENSIFICATION. ONCE TC JOBO MAKES LANDFALL, IT WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INLAND. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 231500Z AND 240300Z.// NNNN