WTXS31 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 004// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221200Z --- NEAR 9.9S 45.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 45.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 9.7S 44.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 9.3S 42.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 8.8S 41.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 8.3S 40.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 8.0S 39.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 221500Z POSITION NEAR 9.9S 44.8E. 22APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 558 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED NEAR RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND FMEE AND WITHIN LOW-LEVEL BANDING EVIDENT IN 221318Z SSMIS IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM THE SAME REPORTING AGENCIES. TC 29S HAS TRACKED STEADILY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE HIGH (28-29C), MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT HAVE INDUCED A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. TC 29S IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL IN CENTRAL TANZANIA AROUND TAU 72. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE 35 KNOT WARNING THRESHOLD NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIVERGES THEREAFTER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE VORTEX IN EACH MODEL AND SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE STEERING PATTERN AS MID-LATITUDE TROUGHING PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.// NNNN