WTXS31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220000Z --- NEAR 10.4S 46.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 46.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 10.2S 45.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 9.9S 44.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 9.4S 43.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 9.0S 42.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 8.4S 40.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 8.2S 39.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 8.0S 37.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.4S 46.2E. 22APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 513 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS THAT THE STORM IS STRUGGLING TO FURTHER DEVELOP AND HAS ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TROUGH AXIS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL BANDING PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND IN A TIMELY 220131Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTIAGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS, PGTW) AND T4.0 (65 KTS, FMEE) WHICH BOUND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS OF 51 KTS (212230Z SATCON) AND 57 KTS (ADT). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING AND MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THIS MODERATE VWS AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT, THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER VERY FAVORABLE 29 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TC JOBO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE LOWER AND MORE FAVORABLE VWS AFTER TAU 24, CONTINUED CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WILL HINDER INTENSIFICATION. OF NOTE, THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT TC JOBO WILL INTENSIFY JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS SCENARIO IS CAPTURED IN THE MESOSCALE HWRF SOLUTION NEAR TAU 96; HOWEVER, IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN ANY OTHER MEMBERS OF THE ICNW CONSENSUS. TROPICAL CYCLONE JOBO WILL MOVE ASHORE OVER MOZAMIBIQUE JUST AFTER TAU 96 AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT AND IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, INDICATING A SLOW TRACK TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z AND 230300Z.// NNNN