WTXS31 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 211200Z --- NEAR 9.7S 47.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 9.7S 47.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 9.6S 46.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 9.5S 45.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 9.3S 44.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 9.0S 43.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 8.5S 41.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 8.0S 40.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 7.6S 38.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 211500Z POSITION NEAR 9.7S 47.5E. 21APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (JOBO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 552 NM NORTH OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) VERIFIES THE RAPID CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF TC 29S, WITH A WEAK EYE LIKE FEATURE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY BY THE 211000Z HOUR, AND SUBSEQUENTLY FADING BY THE 211200Z HOUR. A 211036Z AMSR2 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE EXHIBITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC), FORMING A CLEAR 12NM MICROWAVE EYE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DVORAK- BASED ESTIMATES RANGING BETWEEN T3.0-T3.4 ARE LIKELY UNDER- ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY DUE TO KNOWN DVORAK TECHNIQUE BIASES WITH COMPACT SYSTEMS. THUS, INTENSITY IS INCREASED ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PRIMARILY DUE TO THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IN THE MICROWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. OVERALL, TC JOBO LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH EXPANDING CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE WEST INDICATIVE OF AN IMPROVED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS ROUND OUT THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALLOWING FOR THE RECENT PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TC JOBO HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. THE RECENT PERIOD OF SLOWING IS ATTRIBUTED TO A WEAKENED GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHICH WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST- NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF TANZANIA JUST AFTER TAU 96. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TAU 24, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75 KNOTS. THEREAFTER, THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INDUCE INCREASED SHEAR, RESULTING IN A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 72. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SHEAR RELAXES ONCE AGAIN, A BRIEF PERIOD OF REINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION ONCE INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FULL RANGE OF THE FORECAST, WITH SPREAD INCREASING FROM 65NM AT TAU 48 TO 130NM AT TAU 120, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z AND 221500Z. // NNNN