ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.8S 52.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 50.2E, APPROXIMATELY 410 
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE COMOROS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING 
OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201534Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. INVEST 95S IS IN AN 
ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH FAIR EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES AND 
PASSES NORTH OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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