ABIO10 PGTW 200930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/200930Z-201800ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200821ZAPR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.1S 53.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 52.4E, APPROXIMATELY 634 
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 200256Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FORMATIVE 
BANDING WITH CYCLING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 200623Z ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS 
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD, WITH 25-30KT 
WINDS AND A RELATIVELY SMALLER AREA OF 30-35KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE 
ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST 95S IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR 
INTENSIFICATION, WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES AND 
PASSES NORTH OF MADAGASCAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 200830) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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