ABIO10 PGTW 200100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/200100Z-201800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.4S 55.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 53.9E, APPROXIMATELY 580 
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 192137Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE 
BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION. A 191831Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 
A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT WINDS MOSTLY IN THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE AND LESSER WINDS ELSEWHERE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 
LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH SOME 
INTENSIFICATION NEAR NORTHERN MADAGASCAR IN 1-2 DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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