ABIO10 PGTW 191800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/191800Z-201800ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.1S 61.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 55.7E, APPROXIMATELY 520 
NM NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 191307Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A DISORGANIZED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME LOW LEVEL BANDING AND FLARING 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 95S WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT NEAR 
NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN