ABIO10 PGTW 190000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/190000Z-191800ZAPR2021// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.1S 61.1E, APPROXIMATELY 721 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 182054Z AMSR2 GW1 89HZ IMAGE DEPICT A RECENT FLARE OF CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH LOW LEVEL BANDING. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MARGINAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95S WILL PROPAGATE WESTWARD WITH MINOR DEVELOPMENT NEAR NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. GFS AND ECMWF ARE OUTLIERS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT TO TC STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AS LOW.// NNNN