WTPN21 PGTW 130330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121121Z APR 21//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 121130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 7.1N 138.8E TO 9.1N 137.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 130000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.3N 138.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.9N 141.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 134 
NM SOUTH OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL 
CIRUCLATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122137 SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE 
DEPICTS MINOR LOWER LEVEL BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION TO THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), DUAL-
CHANNEL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, CONSOLIDATE AND 
STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 48-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
140330Z.//
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