WTPS31 PGTW 110300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 24.6S 167.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.6S 167.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 26.9S 169.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 29.2S 172.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 25.2S 168.4E. 11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28P (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON A 102147Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWING 35-45 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT THE ASSESSMENT AND RANGE FROM 2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUICKLY DEGRADING AND SHEARING THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TC 28P IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. VWS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 18, WHICH WILL PRODUCE STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 24. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// NNNN