ABPW10 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/102100Z-110600ZAPR2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101952ZAPR2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N 
144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 623 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 100923Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. A PARTIAL 101108Z ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS 15-20 
KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC ALONG WITH A STRONG 
(20-25 KTS) WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. IN 
ADDITION, A 101135Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED, BUT WEAK, 
LLC WHICH PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST 
94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST 
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST 
94W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10APR21 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 23.4S 167.2E, APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, 
NEW CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 102100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.4S 162.4E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS.//
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