WTXS31 PGTW 102100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 026// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 101800Z --- NEAR 22.4S 109.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 109.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 25.5S 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 29.5S 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 34 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 33.7S 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 102100Z POSITION NEAR 23.2S 110.2E. 10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255NM WEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATED CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A 101705Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A SYMMETRIC EYEWALL SURROUNDING A 35NM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS IMAGE ALONG WITH THE 37GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.0 (65 KNOTS) TO T4.5 (77 KNOTS). TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW POLEWARD OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 12 AND WILL QUICKLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 36 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN STEADILY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS (25-35 KNOTS) AND TRACKS OVER SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.// NNNN