ABPW10 PGTW 101330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/101330Z-110600ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.0N 
144.1E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 100923Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CYCLING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND 
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. A PARTIAL 101108Z ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS 15-20 
KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLC ALONG WITH A STRONG 
(20-25 KTS) WESTERLY WIND BURST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. IN 
ADDITION, A 101135Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED, BUT WEAK, 
LLC WHICH PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE ANALYSIS POSITION. INVEST 
94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH 
ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST 
94W WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.4S 162.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5S 163.7E, APPROXIMATELY 
225 NM NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 100238Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL 
FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092300Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICTS A BROAD 
LLCC STRETCHED FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH 25-30 KT 
WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. ANALYSIS SUGGESTS INVEST 92P IS A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH 
BOTH TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE 
INTENSIFYING AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
LOW.//
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