WTXS31 PGTW 100300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 023// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 20.8S 107.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.8S 107.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 22.1S 108.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 24.5S 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 22 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 27.6S 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 32 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 31.9S 119.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 108.0E. 10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 092124Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING SURROUNDING A LARGE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES AND WARM SST (28C) VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF RANGING FROM T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KNOTS). TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE BY TAU 12 AND ACCELERATE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) COMMENCING AT TAU 24 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 24, TC 26S WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA, TRACKING WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN BY TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER TAU 36 AS VWS INCREASES TO 25-35 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN