WTXS31 PGTW 092100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 022// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 022 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091800Z --- NEAR 20.3S 108.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.3S 108.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 21.1S 108.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 23.1S 109.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 25.8S 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 26 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 29.4S 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 36.7S 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 092100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5S 108.5E. 09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 091800Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE WESTERLIES AND WARM SST (29C) VALUES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES AND APRF RANGING FROM T3.5-4.0 (55-65 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A 091416Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS. TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AFTER TAU 12 AND ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) COMMENCING AT TAU 36 WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WESTERLIES. AFTER TAU 36, TC 26S WILL TURN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHWEST AUSTRALIA, TRACKING WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE SYSTEM WILL COMPLETE ETT BETWEEN TAU 60 TO TAU 72 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET REGION AND GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. TC 26S WILL WEAKEN BY TAU 48 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS AND INTERACTS WITH LAND. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72 AS VWS INCREASES TO 60 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN