WTXS32 PGTW 091500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 019// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 019 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 111.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 111.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 18.5S 112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 21.2S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 23.3S 111.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 111.3E. 09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 439 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY(EIR) SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER(LLCC) COMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE MAIN BODY OF CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL PLACEMENT OF ODETTE IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, A TIMELY 091114Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, AND TIGHT GROUPING FROM MULTIPLE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES BY PGTW, APRF, AND KNES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY FIXES FROM PGTW OF T2.5 (35KTS), APRF T2.0(30KTS), KNES T1.5(25KTS), AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE(ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.0(45KTS), AND LOWER THAN SATELLITE CONSENSUS(SATCON) AT 52KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH SLIGHT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, BUT REMAINS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AS THE INTERACTION OF ODETTE AND TC 26S (SEROJA) HAS CLOSED TO 295NM. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MAIN BODY OF CONVECTION IS REMAINING TOWARDS THE PERIPHERY. THE WINDOW OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS CLOSING, WITH NO FURTHER INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WINDS FORECAST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER TAU 12 AS ODETTE ROTATES AROUND THE NORTH, THEN EAST SIDE OF SEROJA. SEROJA IS STILL EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY ABSORB THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF ODETTE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 36, JUST AFTER THE PAIR OF CYCLONES CROSS THE LATITUDE OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE; HOWEVER, IT HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY EAST OF PREVIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS RUNS, WHICH ARE CONTINUING TO RESOLVE THE EXACT TIME TO DISSIPATION OF ODETTE INTO SEROJA, LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN