WTXS32 PGTW 090900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 14.9S 109.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 18 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 109.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.0S 111.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.3S 111.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 22.9S 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 25.3S 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 109.7E. 09APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (ODETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 524 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY(MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND MULTIPLE DVORAK AGENCY FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW AND APRF OF T3.0(45KTS) AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.3(51KTS) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) AT 48KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH A SMALL POINT SOURCE DEVELOPING ABOVE ODETTE PROVIDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BUT THESE ARE OFFSET BY THE INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NOW RANGING BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AS THE DISTANCE BETWEEN ODETTE AND TC 26S (SEROJA) CLOSES WITHIN 290NM. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS MAKING NO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE VORTEX HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE LLCC. THE WINDOW OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE CLOSING AND NO FURTHER INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WINDS IS FORECAST. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS AS ODETTE ROTATES AROUND THE NORTH AND THEN EAST SIDE OF SEROJA. BEING THE LARGER, MORE DOMINANT CYCLONE, SEROJA WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF ODETTE, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OF ODETTE BY 48 HOURS AFTER THE PAIR OF CYCLONES CROSSES THE LATITUDE OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WARNING; HOWEVER, THE TRACK FOR TC 27S SHIFTED EASTWARD BY TAU 48 AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TRYING TO RESOLVE THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THE DISSIPATION OF ODETTE INTO SEROJA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX- HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN