ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZAPR2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.4S 156.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 157.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
419 NM EAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A MOSTLY EXPOSED, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 
OFFSET TO THE WEST. A 090334Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS THE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLC WITH MINOR, FRAGMENTED DEEP 
CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. INVEST 92P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10 
TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXCELLENT EASTWARD OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL TRACK 
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD; HOWEVER, DISAGREE ON INTENSIFICATION RATE 
WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS INDICATING THAT 92P WILL INTENSIFY, BUT 
REMAIN BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD. GFS IS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER, 
INDICATING THAT 92P WILL REACH WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT COUPLE 
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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