WTXS32 PGTW 082100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 016 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 106.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 106.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 14.7S 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 17.1S 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 17 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 20.4S 111.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 20 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 24.0S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 082100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 106.9E. 08APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 654 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE REMAINS SHEARED FROM THE EAST, WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC) LOCATED BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) THAT HAS CONTAINED COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -90C DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS IN ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR). VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS 25-30 KTS DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH TC 26S, WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 27S. A RECENT 081838Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THAT THE CDO IS ATTEMPTING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF TC 27S, WITH A CURVED EYEWALL- LIKE FEATURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THIS EVOLUTION INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE MAY STILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY UNDER THE CURRENT LEVELS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 47 KTS FROM ADT AND 44 KTS FROM SATCON, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ACCORDINGLY RAISED TO 45 KT. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50 KTS IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER, WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION WITHIN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION OF TC 26S IS FORECAST. TC 27S AND TC 26S HAVE CLOSED WITHIN 360 NM OF EACH OTHER, AND ARE NOW DIRECTLY INTERACTING. GIVEN THE COMPARABLE INTENSITIES OF THE TWO CYCLONES AT PRESENT, THE INTERACTION APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SOME MODELS ANTICIPATED, AND IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE TC 26S TO SLOW DOWN AND STAY CLOSER TO TC 27S. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT SPEED-UP OF THE FORECAST TRACK FOR TC 27S, WHICH WILL WHIP EASTWARD AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF TC 26S TODAY, FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF TC 26S DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD AS IT PASSES WITHIN 170 NM OF THE AUSTRALIAN COASTLINE. BY 48 HOURS, THE CIRCULATION SHOULD UNRAVEL WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF TC 26S, AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AT THAT TIME. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN