WTXS31 PGTW 072100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (SEROJA) WARNING NR 014 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 15.6S 114.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 114.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 16.7S 112.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 18.0S 111.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 19.1S 110.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 20.2S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 22.8S 109.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 27.9S 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 34.1S 125.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 114.0E. 07APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (SEROJA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHEARED TC, WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, CURVED BANDING HAS BEEN IMPROVING IN COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE IN RECENT HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KTS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.9 FROM ADT AND T3.5 FROM PGTW, AS WELL AS A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 46 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND TC 26S IS EXPECTED TO IMMINENTLY IMPROVE AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROUND THE WEAKER WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR TO 5-10 KTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A POCKET OF DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE IN THE CYCLONE'S NORTHEAST QUADRANT IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER SHEAR SHOULD FACILITATE EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RAPID INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER, 26S WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C, COMPARED TO CURRENT VALUES OF 30C, AND VERTICAL SHEAR MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THUS, PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KT IS EXPECTED AT 72 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AS 26S ROUNDS THE PERIPHERY OF THE AUSTRALIAN RIDGE AND ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL NORTH OF GERALDTON, AUSTRALIA AROUND 96 HOURS AND THEN BEGINNING TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 120 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. // NNNN